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Friday, December 15, 2006

US TECHS: S&P Breaking Out of Bull-Flag Pattern

Daily charts for Mar S&P had been developing a bull-flag pattern for the past few weeks and Thursday saw solid follow through on upside of that pattern. With this morning's high of 1444 the pattern's measured-move objective has been achieved but the larger point is that the pattern of higher highs and higher lows is firmly intact and price action is giving no indications that the rally from the summer lows is coming to an end.

The bullish signal from Trend Intensity has been reestablished on this recent strength although this is not an ideal level from which to start a new signal. This one-way move in the market for the past few months is most clearly seen on longer-term charts as the weekly time frame shows a straight shot higher with very few signs of weakness. In looking at the monthly chart of the cash index the move from early 2005 could be viewed as a breakout from a bullish pattern that has the possibility of reaching the all time highs. That's a longer time frame than IFR's usual focus but it should be kept in mind as a supportive element.

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