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Tuesday, December 19, 2006

US TECHS: S&P Slips Back into Ascending Channel Pattern

Daily charts show Mar S&P has been trading in an ascending channel pattern for the past two months. Strength late last week saw the contract break through the upper end of that pattern (top line is currently at 1438), which should have triggered a fairly sizable measured move higher.

That did not develop and the daily candlestick for Friday developed as shooting star, implying a near-term top. The combination of the false breakout and bearish candlestick does present a warning sign for the bullish camp and points to a short-term pullback. First support for the contract is a trendline off recent lows that comes in at 1430.

A break below there would likely challenge the recent lows at 1416 and bulls need to see that area hold. If it doesn't it would be the first sign of damage to the pattern of higher highs and higher lows in several months.

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