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Thursday, December 14, 2006

Sterling Outlook (14th December 2006)

A fairly busy morning for the Sterling market with data releases and BoE reports for traders to digest. At the onset there was talk in London of a bull market that was displaying signs of fatigue and that it would not take much for the profit takers to alter the landscape. Cable opened in London at 1.9655 having bumped along sideways overnight within a 1.9650 to 1.9680 range.

Sellers were primed but data releases needed to be negotiated first. November retail sales came in above forecast at +0.3% on the month and +3.2% on the year, and this despite fears that the November rate hike might stifle consumer activity. Sterling climbed to 1.9692 from 1.9665 but soon lost its hold and fell quickly back to 1.9665. Sideways to slightly firmer action then seen into the 11:00 GMT CBI numbers.

Orders surprised with an improvement to -5 from -6 but export orders fell to -5 from +3 as the high Pound impacted activity. The market fell quickly through support and stops at 1.9650, took out further support at 1.9630 to reach 1.9625. Risk seen of sub-1.96 levels but small bids are touted in the 1.9620-1.9630 area.

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