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Friday, January 26, 2007

Euro Outlook (25th January 2007)

Into European trading and despite the risk to the Ifo release being skewed on the downside speculators were quick to buy EUR/USD on the talk that a 112 headline was in the offing. Spot rallied and the offers from 1.2980 back to 1.3000 were absorbed with option related and official supply stalling the momentum ahead of the publication.

However, the eventual 107.9 January reading forced a quick U-turn and EUR/USD dropped 20-pips as long positions were exited. Bids into the 1.2950/60 area are now expected to prop while any clear break above 1.30 will see bulls look to the 1.3040/50 level. Looking ahead, US data into the North American session kicks off with weekly jobless numbers.

Following this, the 15:00 GMT unveiling of existing home sales & help-wanted index (both December) will keep the attention on the Dollar before the ECB speakers after the European close will re-focus the market attention on the potential for Trichet & Co. to hike rates. On the options front, dealers note 1.2985, 90 & 1.3000 strikes set to expire at the NY cut at 15:00 GMT.

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