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Friday, January 19, 2007

Yen Outlook (19th January 2007)

JPY consolidated, with USD/JPY and the JPY crosses unable to sustain the recent highs. USD/JPY retraced from the Tokyo high amid an overhang of exporter offers from 121.40 up towards yesterday's 121.60 high. Profit taking by longs and a smattering of sales from Japanese exporters was noted, although, there was a lack of appetite to push it aggressively lower as the market was aware that importers will have to buy relatively large amounts ahead of month-end.

EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY, AUD/JPY and NZD/JPY all experienced profit taking. Real money selling was noted in AUD/JPY and NZD/JPY via a Japanese securities house, while EUR/JPY fell amid European fund sales and an easier EUR/USD tone. EUR/JPY found bid interest towards the 157.00 area.

GBP/JPY was pulled back under the weight of selling via GBP/USD after the pair was unable to sustain gains despite strong UK retail sales. The outlook for JPY remains negative, however, some large JPY players are seeing signs of excess in the crosses, while the feeling is USD/JPY may still have some more upside. Exporter interest has picked up, yet many eye a run on 125.00.

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