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Friday, January 26, 2007

Yen Outlook (25th January 2007)

Price action was choppy as G7 risk and carry trade fears continued to influence. JPY received a lift in Asia amid a paring down of built-up cross positions. Both USD/JPY and the JPY crosses posted a decent bounce out of the lows amid Japanese real money demand and fresh speculative positioning.

Gains were clipped by further confusion over the forthcoming G7 meeting. MOF's Watanabe and another unnamed G7 source played down the prospect of a discussion on JPY at the meeting. This weighed on JPY, although gains were limited amid hedge fund selling and general profit taking by stale longs. USD/JPY traded up to 120.70 from the 120.20 lows in Asia but met good selling interest, leaving the pair around 120.40. EUR/JPY pressed higher to print a 156.85 high but was unable to sustain these gains, with prices falling away amid speculative account selling.

GBP/JPY followed a similar theme, yet held up amid rumours of a decent buy order. The activity was reportedly M&A related and follows yesterday's heavy interest from a large US name. Price action is expected to remain choppy, with focus expected to remain on carry trades and pre-G7 risk reduction.

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