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Friday, January 26, 2007

Sterling Outlook (25th January 2007)

Sell interest at 1.9730 kept a lid on cable in early European trade, as it pushed its recovery envelope from yesterday's six-day low of 1.9645. Lows just under 1.9680 were posted on the subsequent pullback. Further offers are touted up at 1.9750, half-a-dozen pips ahead of Tuesday's low, and 1.9800.

Loss consolidation from Tuesday's 15-year high of 1.9917 is the big-picture story, with diminished risk of a February UK rate hike helping weigh. That diminished February hike risk derives from BoE Governor King's relatively dovish comments late Tuesday, and yesterday's MPC minutes disclosure that this month's UK rate rise to 5.25% was only delivered by a 5-4 margin. 1.9600 and 1.9590 are noted support points south of 1.9645/50.

The 1.9590 level approximates to a 50% Fibo retracement point of the ascent from 1.9260 (Jan 8 low) to 1.9917. Decent size stops reportedly reside below 1.9590. A 1.9735 option strike rolls off at tomorrow's NY cut (Friday, 15:00GMT). US weekly jobless claims are due at 13:30GMT. Forecast: 310k. US existing home sales ensue at 15:00GMT. Forecast: 6.25mn.

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