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Tuesday, January 30, 2007

Euro Outlook (30th January 2007)

Into European trading and the break above 1.2950 gave bulls confidence but the early French data disappointed and this failed to boost the Euro. Spot failed to retest the 1.2975 Asian session high and short-term accounts began to eye the downside. German CPI data then weighed but bids into the 1.2945/50 area continued to prop to leave trading working 1.2950/75.

Stops are noted above 1.2980 with CB offers into 85 before option sales into 1.30. Looking ahead, more comments are expected from the ECOFIN Finance meeting in Brussels. Overnight the conference produced a host of Finance Minister comments but it was the Almunia speech that drew the most press coverage. Kick starting the US deluge for the rest of the week is the first day of the FOMC meeting but only the most ardent expect any move from Bernanke & Co.

US weekly redbook data is followed by the 15:00 GMT release of January Consumer Confidence numbers (the consensus forecast sits at 110.0). On the options front, a brace of 1.3000 strikes are set to mature over the next two days with downside 1.2850 interest still speculated upon.

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