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Monday, December 18, 2006

Euro Outlook (18th December 2006)

Into the new week and volumes looked muted from the out-set as dealers talked of the market moving into pre-X-Mas mood. Bids into 1.3090 propped EUR/USD for the majority of the European morning while cumulative supply into 1.3110/15 capped the topside. More sellers 1.3125 & 1.3135.

Looking ahead, US Q3 Current Account data is set for release into the North American session (13:30 GMT). A widening to USD 225Bln is looked for and the data still holds the propensity to hurt the US unit despite its fight-back in the wake of the soft CPI headline. Dealers' see 1.3050/60 bids as being fortified by reserve managers while 1.3030 is seen as the key downside trigger where the bulk of the model market will begin flipping to the short-side.

Add to this, the solid technical support at this level and 1.3000/30 remains key. Into tomorrow and the markets focus will return to Germany with the unveiling of the latest IFO report. In the wake of the upward trajectory of the ZEW some have suggested that a fresh 15-Year high will be seen in the index while many economists still opt for a degree of consolidation.

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