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Wednesday, December 20, 2006

Swiss Outlook (20th December 2006)

Into European trading and the Franc was being sold once more but the latest combined Import & Export price data has come to the rescue of the CHF. Expected down 0.1% on the month the data has come in flat in November and up 2.8% on an annualized basis. This comes against the previous +2.4% reading and economists cite oil as the key factor in the index volatility.

The data is broadly inline with expectations but with inflation in the mountain economy seen as benign, if not negligible, the appearance of any sign of price pressure is to be cheered. EUR/CHF buyers were noted as the cross attempted to break above 1.6050 in the wake of the latest "dovish" SNB comments. This buying sparked USD/CHF buying. Standing offers into 1.2150 rebuffed the advance before Swiss economic data underpinned the CHF.

Bidding into the resistance turned support zone of 1.3125/30 now props. Looking ahead, there is little of real significance set for release in the North American session. As a result, 1.2100/50 will act as a short-term comfort zone with more sellers into 1.2175/80 & 1.2200/10.

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