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Friday, December 15, 2006

Swiss Outlook (15th December 2006)

Into European trading and Swiss rates at the mid-point of 2.0% were still seen as an attractive level to fund carry interest. Add to this the Swiss player talking of renewed appetite for risk (their in-house index hit -0.91 from a previous -0.46) and the Dollar was always likely to find fresh support.

However, it was EUR/USD that triggered the USD/CHF break higher and spot was forced back to 1.2200 as the Euro pair nudged back towards 1.3100. Swiss data was overlooked as Retail Sales resulted in a robust outcome of +0.6% Y/Y in October. Looking ahead, the focus remains on inflation, with US CPI set for release at 13:30 GMT. Economists expect the November headline to come in at +0.2% with core also seen +0.2%.

Following this, October Capital Inflow data and November Industrial Production are set for unveiling at 14:00 & 14:15 GMT. Should the data support the Dollar then a break into the 1.22's will eye the stops above 1.2205/10 with bulls then tipped to eye a run at 1.2215 technical resistance and the standing supply tipped on approach to 1.2280/60. 1.2215 represents the 50.0% Fibo of the sell-off from 1.2541 to 1.1883.

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