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Tuesday, December 19, 2006

Euro Outlook (19th December 2006)

The EUR turned a corner last session after laying down a base at 1.3054. Not a great deal of rhyme or reason for the Asia moves other than a good pick up in EUR/JPY following official rhetoric and fund book keeping, which kept the US players busy, both in New York and London.

A flat return for German Nov PPI had little impact on the market but attention was placed on the Dec IFO. A surprisingly strong return of 108.7 for the climate index and 115.3 for current conditions gave the EUR a boost to 1.3175. Currency concerns from the French had no impact and the market set about consolidating the early EUR strength. A 1.3160 to 1.3170 range played out into midday. EUR/USD has good European bids in the 1.3050-70 area and stops above 1.3200.

There is also talk of a 1/4-yard 1.3235 option expiry today. Resistance is seen at 1.3195-00, the 10-day MA line while Monday's 1.3055 low provides the support. The EUR is a buy but thin conditions could lead to quick profit takes and book tidying, which could bring about a quick and significant change in direction.

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