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Friday, December 22, 2006

US TECHS: Commodities Outlook; Gold and Oil

[Gold] is now on its fifth session below its 50-day moving average but not exactly following through. The standoff between bearishly-developing weekly trend models and still-bullish monthlies does not look to be resolving itself quickly. Daily models are set to turn bullish at day's end if losses don't expand. ADX, one type of trending indicator, began to uptick on December 15 from good trend-ready levels, favoring the bears, but with not much to show for that signal yet. On intraday charts, tight range since yesterday keeps resistance close at $624.

In [oil], prices have fallen a little over a dollar from highs set in the aftermath of yesterday's peak levels. Intraday resistance in Feb is at $63.30-60 and falling. Another sort of standoff is apparent on these charts, too, with bullish weeklies at risk below $63.60 tomorrow but monthlies needing a $64.40 or better close at the end of 2006 to turn neutral from bearish.

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