Technical weight in the form of the 10-Day moving average line (currently 1.3265) & the 61.8% Fibo at 1.3274 (of the Friday sell-off from 1.3363 to 1.3131) has kept the topside intact in EUR/USD thus far intraday. However, the Euro has been underpinned by fresh record EUR/JPY highs and the upside surprise in the December German ZEW release (62.5 Vs the Pvs 53.0, against the expected 55.0).
As a result of this push-me/pull-you EUR/USD has steadied close to 1.3250, add into the equation the impending FOMC risk and spot has looked steady with little propensity for fresh short-run volatility. All this will change into North American trading if the Fed Chairman, Bernenke, has altered his inflation view and the outlook for early 2007. Also adding to the Dollar risk is the October trade data set for release at 13:30 GMT.
Dealers note Sovereign & option interest from 1.3210 back to 1.3200 (linked to the strikes set to expire at the NY cut at 15:00 GMT) while on the topside only a break above 1.3275 will add to the momentum. Above here and a full retracement back to the Friday highs will be eyed before the 1.34 barriers.
No comments:
Post a Comment