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Wednesday, December 20, 2006

Sterling Outlook (20th December 2006)

UK rate hawks touting another 25bp base rate hike to 5.25% in February have received a further boost from the 11:00GMT disclosure that December's CBI retail sales balance rocketed to a two-year high of +25, from minus 9 in November. Minus 4 was forecast.

GBP/USD rallied to 15-day highs just shy of 1.9750 in early European trade, as its M&A flow-assisted rally from Monday"s 19-day low of 1.9435 extended. Offers are tipped into 1.9750, inclusive of profit-take interest. Some stops are tipped above 1.9750. The above-mentioned stops could boost cable towards 1.9800 if tripped. 1.9800+ bull targets include 1.9820, 1.9849 (December 1, 14-year high), 1.9900, and 2.0000. Exotic option barriers reside at 1.9900 and 2.0000.

Bids are tipped at 1.9690--a couple of pips ahead of today's 1.9688 Asian session base. Further demand is noted pre-1.9665 (last Friday's top). Minutes from the December 6/7 BoE MPC meeting revealed that the UK base rate was held at 5.0% by a 9-0 vote.

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