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Wednesday, December 13, 2006

Sterling Outlook (13th December 2006)

Cable rallied by more than a quarter-cent to 1.9725 offers after the 09:30GMT disclosure of an unexpected 5.7k decline in November UK claimant count unemployment. A 3.5k rise was expected. October's ILO jobless rate also came in at a lower-than-expected 5.5%, with annualized earnings rising by an above-forecast 4.1% in the three months to October.

The above-mentioned data is further good news for UK rate hawks touting another 25bp base rate hike to 5.25% in February, following yesterday's unveiling of higher-than-expected UK November CPI inflation. Touted stops above 1.9730 could spur fresh upward momentum towards 1.9800 if tripped. 1.9849 was the December 1, 14-year high. 1.9670 was the early Europe pre-UK unemployment and earnings data low.

1.9650 is a support point below. Today's key US event risk is the 13:30GMT release of November retail sales figures. Headline sales are forecast +0.1% m/m, ex-autos +0.3% m/m. UK November retail sales will be revealed at 09:30GMT tomorrow. The CBI's industrial trends survey ensues at 11:00GMT.

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