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Friday, December 15, 2006

Euro Outlook (15th December 2006)

Into European trading and EUR/USD had managed to stabilize above 1.3130. However, the muted Asian action may not have been a fair reflection as Japan awaited its Tankan results & the US delegation visit to China kept interest muted and pricing tight. Europe had a peak at the topside but the push to 1.3174 failed to be sustained and the move back down saw sales increase.

Technical support into 1.3130 and bids into this level were then quickly absorbed and lumpy model stops were tripped in the break lower as bears eyed a run at 1.3090. However, central bank & assorted regional interest into 1.3105 propped before the release of EZ HICP underpinned the Euro. Looking ahead, with core inflation in the Euro Zone seen as "under control" the support for the Euro may not last and the Dollar rally could continue as some eye a run at 1.30 ahead of the turn.

Staying on inflation, US CPI is set for release at 13:30 GMT with the November headline expected at +0.2% with core also seen +0.2%. Following this, October Capital Inflow data and November Industrial Production are set for unveiling at 14:00 & 14:15 GMT.

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