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Monday, December 11, 2006

US TECHS: S&P Not Giving Up Ground Despite Warning Signs

While some technical warning signs (bearish divergences, fading trend signals) have developed for Mar S&P, the market is not really giving up much ground. Price action remains the dominant technical indicator and the current pattern of higher highs and higher lows is one of the most powerful patterns that exists.

One other growing concern is seen in the sentiment arena as the 20-day equity put/call ratio has been sinking lately, reflecting growing optimism by the general public. It currently sits at .58 and it was at .57 at the last significant top in May of this year.

It's not so much the actual level of this ratio but rather its behavior at these levels. If it begins to turn up from here it would reflect growing pessimism in the market and would be an indication of a near-term top. For now though price action has been a good guide and it continues to maintain a bullish bias.

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