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Wednesday, December 13, 2006

Euro Outlook (13th December 2006)

In the wake of the FOMC EUR/USD broke above Fibo resistance at 1.3274 but the price failed to clear 1.3300. As a result, action since has been consolidative with the stops in the 1.3290's intact (albeit threatened). Holding near the 1.3275 mark for the majority of Asian trading the fresh record highs in EUR/JPY underpinned trading with German & French data overlooked into early Europe.

Profit-taking against the Yen also weighed into Europe but real money demand into 1.3260 propped the downside. However, this bidding was soon filled and spot dipped back towards 1.3250 before option related buyers kicked the pair higher once more. 1.3253 marks the intraday low with the gamma related interest linked to expiries at 1.3250 at the NY cut. Also set to mature at 15:00 GMT are a batch of large 1.3200 strikes.

Looking ahead, US November Retail Sales at 13:30 GMT are eyed as the near-term propellant for further volatility with more stop loss orders found on a break above 1.3305. Below 1.3250, reserve managers and other official interest is tipped on the books into 1.3230.

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