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Friday, December 22, 2006

EUR/USD: Large Expiry Seen Helping Keep Prices Contained

EUR/USD finds itself in a range either side of a large 1.3200 expiry this morning, and baring any surprises from the US economic data this morning will likely not stray too far. Durable goods orders are expected to rebound 1.0% after an 8.3% decline in October while core PCE, the Fed's preferred price measure, is seen holding steady at 2.4% y/y, above their comfort level of 2%.

European data was mixed this morning with France showing weakness in the Insee business confidence survey and Spain upping its GDP forecasts. Heavy offers are rumored on rallies to 1.3220/25 while bids are eyed in the 1.3130/40/50 region. Stops kick-in on a break below the 1.3125 level, the 61.8% retracement of the 1.3055/1.3245 rebound.

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