[Import Prices (Nov)] Even after back-to-back declines of 2.0% in September and October, IFR estimates import prices declined a further 0.5% in November. Look for a fall in prices for imported capital goods (mostly autos, parts and engines) to more than offset a small rise in the fuels index. Net of petroleum, the import price index fell by 0.6% in October though net of fuels (a subtle but important distinction) import prices fell only 0.1% in October. Representing 78% of all commodities, the ex-fuels index is supposed to rise by 0.2% in November, keeping the year-ago gain at 2.5% and providing enough imported inflation to wave the Fed off from a nearby rate cut.
[Jobless Claims (Dec 9)] IFR anticipates further consolidation in initial claims to 320k in the December 9 week. A week earlier, claims posted a 34k drop to 324k, merely pulling back from their anomalous rise of 35k in the prior week. There was a 1k upward revision to 358k in the prior week. Of mild concern though likely due to the same seasonal distortion that goosed first-time filers, the number of repeat filers in the November 25 week rose 57k to 2.524 mln, the highest level since January.
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