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Monday, January 22, 2007

Euro Outlook (22nd January 2007)

Into European trading and EUR/USD held softer having been capped at 1.2980 in late Asian trading. Spot pivoted 1.2970 while early German economic data was digested before heading lower once more as cumulative sales weighed. Bids into 1.2955 propped for a time before European names and speculative sales increased and price broke under 1.2950.

Small stops were triggered in the move and 1.2939 was printed. However, dealers were aware of decent bids in the 1.2930's so spot soon recovered. Offers into 1.3000/10 remain key above. Looking ahead, the short-term event-risk for EUR/USD will be the 13:30 GMT release of Chicago Fed data (Dec) and the UBS/Gallup Index (Jan). Following this the attention will turn to the 15:00 GMT December Leading Indicators and the Fed's Yellen, who is set to speak in Reno after the European close.

On the options front a barrage of topside strikes will weigh on price ahead of the 15:00 GMT NY cut. Large 1.2990 and smaller 1.3000 strikes should stall any topside interest with more 1.30 expiry action later in the week.

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