Mar S&P has not really made any net gains since it established a high on December 15. Price action over the past month has stuck to a sideways pattern and has slipped back to the 50-day moving average at 1421, which has been excellent support since the middle of August. A close below there would likely provide a more bearish signal but until that develops the market still has a few technicals leaning toward the bullish camp.
The six-month seasonal pattern remains constructive through April and the equity/put call ratio has not reached the overly optimistic levels that have signaled prior tops. The sideways range of the past month has forced daily ADX to very low levels so this market seems to be on the verge of another trending move. Given the health of the longer-term charts, a test of the 2000 highs (1540) could unfold before a significant decline develops.
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