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Tuesday, January 23, 2007

Yen Outlook (23rd January 2007)

USD/JPY traded defensively throughout after losing ground after the Tokyo fix. The pair edge through 121.50 and extended losses after finding brief support from Tokyo names. Movement elsewhere led price action, with a decent EUR/USD run higher weighing on USD/JPY. The pair traded into the 121.35 area, yet found good support amid decent interest via the JPY crosses.

GBP/JPY outperformed on general GBP strength, while gains were also noted via AUD/JPY, NZD/JPY and EUR/JPY. EUR/JPY made a fresh all time high, yet struggled initially amid good supply. Selling was noted from option names, lifers and exporters. Price action was choppy around the 158.00 handle and the pair eventually cleared stops above 158.20 and 158.25 to record a 158.28 high.

The JPY crosses are expected to lead USD/JPY price action in the near-term, which should bring the focus back on the 122.00 handle. Recent sessions have seen USD/JPY struggle due to an overhang of offers between 121.80-00. However, we expect the latest JPY moves to feed through USD/JPY, with a return to 121.80/85 likely. Some of the 122.00 triggers roll off today.

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