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Wednesday, January 24, 2007

Sterling Outlook (24th January 2007)

Cable ran into resistance at 1.9770 late in the European morning, after pushing its recovery envelope from two-day lows circa 1.9700. Those lows were plumbed in a knee-jerk reaction to the 09:30GMT disclosure of a closer-than-expected 5-4 MPC vote to hike the base rate to 5.25% earlier this month. Bean, Tucker, Lomax & Blanchflower voted against that hike.

The pound was already under pressure prior to the MPC minutes release, as long GBP positions were cut on the back of yesterday's relatively dovish speech from BoE Governor King. 1.9803-1.9831 was today's Asian session range. GBP bulls have sought solace in the shape of better-than-expected UK Q4 GDP numbers. GBP/USD stops are touted below 1.9696 (last Friday's low). 0.6595 offers capped EUR/GBP at a fractionally fresh one-week peak after the MPC minutes release.

Lows just shy of 0.6576 (today's Asian session top) were posted on the subsequent pullback. Stops are tipped above 0.6610. A raft of GBP/USD exotic option barriers reside from 2.0000, inclusive of triggers at 2.0100, 2.0200, 2.0250, and 2.0300.

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