After a hefty whack at trying to break out downside, USD/CHF bottomed at 1.2423 and has bounced back up to 1.2445 again. The selling impetus emanated from European markets, and carried through into New York, however the US session range of 1.2423/ 1.2461 - the 50% Fibo of which is 1.2442, seems to be attracting price action into mid-range as traders really are ambivalent at current levels. Overall NY traders are bearish, looking to sell rallies, as the greenback has continually disappointed in its ability to rally through the 1.2530-50 area over the past two weeks - capped by sovereign sales, and European hedgers.
The 38.2% Fibo of the recent 1.2375/1.2550 range that has prevailed for the past few weeks also comes in at 1.2442, so it is no wonder that there is some "stickiness" here. The fact that today's lows fell short of yesterday's lows has tech traders a little disappointed, and wary of a rebound, and with the slow stochastics on the hourly study winding in and out of each other like a snake, these levels are terribly neutral.
Traders are looking for something to propel them out of the doldrums, their nearest hope being ECB speakers this afternoon hence the preponderance to short rallies rather than buy dips. Other than that, US durable goods and new home sales data tomorrow is the next hope, if no break more range trading ahead.
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