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Wednesday, January 24, 2007

Swiss Outlook (24th January 2007)

USD/CHF opened in London at levels around 1.2433 and the market a slightly jaded look about it following Tuesday's sharp decline. Cross activity again had the measure of the Franc with EUR/CHF, GBP/CHF and CHF/JPY all providing direction for the spot market. The main drivers have again been Sterling and the Yen with the fall-out leading to a generally weaker Swiss unit.

Focusing on the Swiss pairs we have seen EUR/CHF confound the pundits and clear the 1.6200 level and USD/CHF has rebounded out of an early European 1.2413 hole. While much of the influence on the Swiss market has been external there has been further positioning linked to the benign Swiss inflation outlook. USD/CHF based at 1.2375 last session and has retraced much of the Tuesday fall from 1.2517.

A 1.2440-1.2480 range seen so far with a slightly easier bias into the North American open. The bigger picture continues to hold roughly to a 1.2400 to 1.2545 range. The 200-day MA line provides support at 1.2355, just outside the 21-day line at 1.2380.

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