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Monday, January 22, 2007

Swiss Outlook (22nd January 2007)

Swiss economic data continues highlight a picture of benign price pressure in the economy. As a result, the Franc remains on the defensive into the new week. The lack of geopolitics also weighed on the CHF and fresh carry interest on the crosses has also been noted. Broader Dollar strength helped the pair work higher and the offers from 1.2490 back to the 1.2500/05 mark were absorbed.

A return to 1.2530/50 is now eyed by bulls. Dealers see the 13:30 GMT Chicago Fed data (Dec) & Gallup Poll publication (Jan) as the short-run event-risk with the intraday calendar completed by the 15:00 GMT unveiling of the Dec Leading Indicators. Should the Dollar be dented by the data then a return to the 1.2470, 60 & 50 bids will be looked for. Stops are noted below 1.2450.

Against the Euro, dealers talk of option related sales ahead of the 1.6200 expiry later today (15:00 GMT). Levels of 1.6225 and 1.6250 are eyed by bulls with the all-time high sitting at 1.6237. Against the Pound the Franc continues to struggle with the option barriers at 2.4700 protected from 2.4690.

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