[Gold] moved back above its 200-day moving average last Friday ($616) after spending just over a week below but not attracting follow-through selling. The market is now poised near converging 40- and 50-day moving averages to either side of $631. The market entered the session neutral on all trends, though it is closer to scoring a bullish shift on most time frames by a narrow amount. Of RSI, Stochastics and MACD, only Stochastics shows a bullish divergence setup. Yesterday we leaned bullishly, noting the market's tendency to stay closer to the upper end of the long-term triangle from May. Intraday supports are converging in the $625-26 zone.
[Oil] trying to pick a near-term low is like trying to catch the proverbial falling knife. Weekly pivot supports at $50.45 (Feb) have been narrowly broken intraday; next major supports on weekly charts are to either side of $48. Prices are below monthly extended envelope supports at $51.35 but not by too much. Trend Intensity should hit 31 today, still far from Sep peaks at 44 from that leg down. Very short-term intraday resistance is just a shade above current levels at $51. Yesterday's comment regarding a potential bullish daily momentum divergence (compared with last Sep) still stands, and maximum adverse excursion as measured by oscillator studies is near all-time oversold readings from 1986, increasing the risk of a furious counter-trend event.
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