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Saturday, January 27, 2007

Swiss Outlook (26th January 2007)

Stops in USD/CHF have been removed amid the break above 1.2550. These have helped push trading to the 1.2565 level, just shy of the 1.2570 level we noted earlier that one notable Swiss player was eyeing. However, into North American trading and with EUR/USD failing to break below 1.2890 the price is looking to consolidate the run higher.

Looking ahead, the pair will be bid on dips ahead of the US data due this afternoon. US data kicks off with the 13:30 GMT release of Durable goods numbers for December followed by the 15:00 GMT unveiling of New Home Sales (also Dec). Elsewhere, a research note from a UK Clearer heralds a new broader market Dollar barometer. USD/CHF is now seen by the name as the clearest indicator of the Dollar directional bias.

The note cites the increased fixed income interest of late and goes on to tout the recent break above 4.85% in the US 10-year Treasury yield as the trigger for the latest strength. "The highest levels since August 2006 triggered USD gains pretty much across the board". The name in question is looking for a run at 1.2605 into next week in USD/CHF.

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