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Monday, January 29, 2007

Euro Outlook (29th January 2007)

With little altered with regards to the fundamental outlook there was no reason for speculative EUR/USD sales to increase into the new week. Add into the equation the talk of sizeable official support for the Euro on a drop towards 1.2865 and the downside was left limited into European trading.

As a result the topside has been in focus in the short-run but spot has failed to clear the offers into 1.2925/30. Stops are noted tight above but more sellers are then camped around 1.2950 while 1.2970 is expected to cap intraday. In the medium-term, 1.2680/95 targets (low from Oct 31 06 & the 76.4% of 1.2485-3365) are emerging from all corners while longer-term players look to the 1.2505/2485 support zone. However, all these will require the downside to stay in focus in the medium-term but with the ECB likely to hike rates further the single currency could find increased support at such lower levels.

As a result, the 1.2820 level (the 61.8% Fibo of the above move) has now taken on an increased significance for those eyeing the downside. Any break below here will increase the momentum and appetite for a move lower.

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