[Gold] has been using converging 40- and 50-day moving averages on either side of $631 as a pivot the past week, first as resistance, then as support, and now back to resistance. Dec 1 to Jan 3 downtrends are at $642 today, while more steeply sloped Jan 3-18 downtrends are at $636.40. Continuation charts need a $645+ push to escape the dominant triangle pattern in place since July peaks. Daily trend models are bullish at $629 and higher; weeklies and monthlies are heading in a bullish direction by a modest amount.
[Oil] needs a move to about $51.50 Feb today in order to neutralize bearish daily trend models. Our Trend Intensity indicator has enough momentum in it to keep upticking bearishly for many days, absent a sharp reversal higher in prices. Yesterday saw long-term oscillator studies nearly matching the market's most extreme oversold readings ever set in 1986, when oil dipped below $10/barrel after having been nearly $32/barrel a short time before. Projected weekly supports for next week are setting up in the $48.25-49.40 region, and traders are urged to remain alert for a sizable counter-trend event developing.
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