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Thursday, January 18, 2007

Sterling Outlook (18th January 2007)

Tripped stops above 1.9752 helped inflate cable to 6-week highs just shy of 1.9780 in early European trade. A perception that Tim Besley's inaugural 08:40GMT MPC speech was less hawkish than it could have been was touted as a factor in sterling's subsequent three-quarter cent pullback.

GBP/USD support points include 1.9700, 1.9692 (today's Asian session floor), 1.9645 (yesterday's NY session base), and 1.9603 (yesterday's low). 1.9725 and 1.9800 option strikes roll off at today's 10am EST NY cut (15:00GMT), as does a GBP/CHF 2.4650 strike, and EUR/GBP 0.6550, 0.6545, and 0.6540 strikes. There is also EUR/GBP exotic exposure at 0.6550. GBP/CHF scaled a 64-month peak just shy of 2.47 during a European morning in which EUR/GBP plumbed new 31-month lows within a tenth-of-a-penny of 0.6550.

There is a raft of US data due today, with the prime focus being the 13:30GMT unveiling of December inflation figures. Headline CPI is forecast +0.4% m/m, with core CPI forecast +0.2% m/m. December housing starts will also be revealed at 13:30GMT. Forecast: 1565k.

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