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Tuesday, January 16, 2007

Swiss Outlook (16th January 2007)

The Swiss Franc attempted to rally once more into European trading but this time the USD/CHF move lower had the support of a fuller market. Adding to the recovery was the CHF strength seen on the crosses that was sorely lacking yesterday. Stops below 1.2440 triggered as the Dollar weakened across the board and bids into 1.2400/10 are now eyed by bears.

Only a break below 1.2400 will add longevity to the CHF rally with 1.2280 then eyed. On the crosses, EUR/CHF dropped back from 1.6162 to 1.6128 as the Franc correction kicked-in. However, bidding into the lows stalled the slide and the cross has since consolidated near the 1.6135 mark. Bids are seen trailing to 1.6120 with more support into 1.6100. In the longer-term, one German is looking for a drop to 1.6080 with the potential for a run at 1.5905.

Against the Pound the Franc saw a steeper appreciation as option related interest was seen influencing short-term volatility. GBP/CHF dropped from the 2.4550 seen yesterday to 2.4415 in the wake of the UK data. Option expiries at 2.45 intraday are set to weigh in the s/t but the 2.4650 barriers are still in focus above.

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