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Wednesday, January 17, 2007

Sterling Outlook (17th January 2007)

Fresh demand for GBP was seen from today's European open. This inflated cable through the peak of today's 1.9603-1.9620 Asian session range. Sell interest at 1.9650 and 1.9670 was subsequently sated en route to a high of 1.9677. Further offers are tipped at 1.9700/10. Sell orders from 1.9700 capped GBP/USD at 13-day highs after yesterday's UK inflation data.

EUR/GBP plumbed a 31-month low of 0.6568 during the European morning, with GBP/CHF scaling a new 61-month top just shy of 2.4570, as the pound continued to benefit from the risk of another 25bp UK rate hike to 5.5% being delivered as early as next month (Feb 8). A 2.4550 GBP/CHF option strike expires at 10am EST. There is a raft of US numbers due today, inclusive of December producer prices at 13:30GMT, TIC data at 14:00GMT, industrial production and capacity utilization figures at 14:15GMT, and the Fed's Beige Book at 19:00GMT.

Headline PPI is forecast +0.5% m/m, with core PPI forecast +0.1% m/m. TIC inflows of $75.0bn are forecast. IP is forecast +0.1% m/m. CU is forecast at 81.7%. The Fed"s Yellen is slated to speak at 19:50GMT.

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