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Thursday, January 18, 2007

Swiss Outlook (17th January 2007)

US hedge funds sold USD/CHF into early European trading but the dip to 1.2465 was soon corrected. Buying into dips continues to look attractive and trading was soon back in the 1.2490's. CHF selling on the crosses then forced the pair to a session high at 1.2498 late-on, however, standing supply on Swiss and US books continues to rebuff the advance for the moment.

Elsewhere in European trading, GBP/CHF hit a 62-month high at 2.4571 as the option related supply (linked to the 2.4550 expires today) was eventually exhausted. Dealers now see the option barriers back to 2.4650 as bull targets. Looking ahead, a break above 1.2505 still looks required to add momentum to the short-term charts. Several Swiss player research notes have hit the screens intraday over the lack of upside potential in the Franc so the stops above 1.2505 remain a target with more 1.2515+ before 1.2525/30 is re-tested.

Yet, the raft of US data and speakers seen into North American trading will need to boost the Dollar further if the current range-top at 1.2530 is to be re-tested. US PPI at 13:30 GMT is seen as the next big event-risk.

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