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Tuesday, October 17, 2006

AUD/USD: Metal Prices Seen Underpinning AUD

Rising metal prices are seen helping to underpin the AUD performance though the currency was unable to sustain a break above 0.7550 overnight and is opening around 0.7536, similar to levels seen yesterday in NY. The LMEX base metals index closed at the highest levels since May yesterday with the CRB closing at the highest since Sept 8th.

Comex gold is tipped to open $1 higher this morning with copper prices rising 4.0% on the Shanghai exchange overnight to the best levels since Sept 11th. Partly driving the metals performance are the strong price gains in tin which rose 12% yesterday to 17-year highs. Rate hike expectations are also boosting AUD as was the large uridashi issue from last week.

Dampening the AUD performance continues to be option-related selling and the selling on AUD/JPY ahead of 90.00. In addition, longer term holders of AUD are still paring positions at current levels. AUD/USD support is at 0.7525/30 and lower at 0.7495/00 with resistance remaining in the 0.7555/60 area.

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