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Tuesday, October 17, 2006

USD/CAD: Familiar Ranges Ahead of BOC

USD/CAD is holding familiar ranges between 1.1350 and 1.1390 as the market to eye barrier options at 1.1400. The BOC meeting is the main event for USD/CAD with dealers mindful of the risk that the BOC highlights downside economic risks in light of yesterday's poor manufacturing report and recent moderation in the labor market.

A US slowdown combined with a still-strong currency could wreak havoc ahead. Dealers suspect the BOC may try and cheapen up the Loonie by highlighting downside risks. TIC data from the US complicates the picture slightly as it is released at the same time as the BOC statement.

1.1460 is the near-term upside target should 1.1400 barriers be overcome. Model and momentum buying is expected on a break above those levels. 1.1345/50 is near-term support on dips while the 1.1315/25 zone is also important. Heavy stops are eyed on a break below that level.

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