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Tuesday, October 31, 2006

Sterling Outlook (31st October 2006)

The pound came under selling pressure into the 11:00GMT disclosure of October's way below-forecast CBI retail sales balance--suggesting that some players may have got wind of the terrible number.

GBP/USD plumbed an intra-day low of 1.8959 on the back of CBI shocker, having dropped to 1.8970 into its release. Intra-day highs just shy of touted offers at 1.9030 had been notched in the hour ending 09:00GMT. Bids are tipped at 1.8955/60, with some stops pegged below 1.8950. 1.8957 was yesterday's low.

Swiss name selling helped depress EUR/GBP to a 16-month low of 0.6670 in early European trade. The cross then rallied back to 0.6689 (today's Asian session base) into the CBI release. Offers are noted at 0.6695/0.6700.

October's Chicago PMI index will be revealed at 15:00GMT, alongside October's US consumer confidence index, and Q3 ECI. Chicago PMI forecast: 58.0.BoE Governor Mervyn King, and MPC members David Blanchflower, John Gieve, Kate Barker, and Rachel Lomax are all slated to appear before a House of Lords Economic Affairs Committee from 15:35GMT.

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