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Friday, October 27, 2006

Yen Outlook (27th October 2006)

Both USD/JPY and EUR/JPY consolidated after trading higher following a weaker than expected Japanese CPI and retail sales data overnight. The 0.2% y/y in core nationwide prices in September called into question expectations of a possible BoJ rate hike.

EUR/JPY posted a fresh all time high of 150.80, while USD/JPY traded at 118.72. Both pairs were subjected to profit taking and speculative selling pressure after MOF's Watanabe said JPY weakness would not continue due to current economic conditions in Japan.

This raises the fear of Japanese discontent over ongoing JPY weakness, leaving an element of two-way risk in the market. JPY funded carry trades and retail investor demand continued to undermine JPY, while intervention jitters and a heavy dollar tone offset gains.

A UK clearer sold a good clip early on in the European session, along with reports of sovereign commercial interest. Japanese lifer demand and importer bids fueled a recovery from the 118.35 area but the pair was unable to clear a congestion of Tokyo name offers from 118.65 up to 118.80. EUR/JPY saw very limited price action around 150.25/30 throughout.

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