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Wednesday, October 18, 2006

Swiss Outlook (18th October 2006)

The Franc rallied into early European trading and USD/CHF was forced below its late Asian session base at 1.2670. 1.2656 printed but aggressive UK Clearer and US player buying soon helped the pair bounce. Offers into 1.2690 have since capped the rebound with 1.2700 tipped as a key topside trigger.

Looking ahead, USD/CHF will encounter a US data double at 12:30 GMT. US CPI and Housing Start data provide the early North American risk and should the data fuel further Dollar weakness then a break below 1.2640 will be looked for to add momentum to the downside. A French player is targeting 1.2630 as a "dynamic target", while other more aggressive players are said to look for a run at 1.2590 in the medium-term should the Dollar stay on the defensive.

Swiss data is set for unveiling tomorrow with Retail sales & Trade data (August & September respectively) expected to highlight the view that the alpine economy is continuing to grow at a robust rate. Earlier today, SNB's member Hildebrand noted that he saw no signs that the Swiss economy was on the verge of overheating.

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