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Tuesday, October 17, 2006

Swiss Outlook (17th October 2006)

With the Euro taking a slight hit after its brace of disappointing data (annualized September EZ HICP was revised down from +1.8% to +1.7% and October ZEW hit -27.4 from the previous -22.2) the Swissie is bracing for a similar price action. However, key Swiss domestic data is not due for release until later in the week.

As a result the Franc has managed to buck the broader "stalling" trend intraday as "safer" flows were seen from those trimming positions elsewhere. USD/CHF was sold back to 1.2673 while EUR/CHF broke below 1.5900 to trigger stops and hit a low of 1.5889 thus far.

US data is now in focus into the North American session with the 12:30 GMT unveiling of September PPI providing the early risk. More bids are seen into 1.2665 while sellers into 1.2695/2700 are attempting to cap rebounds. Economists look for a fall of over 1.0% on the month while the core rate is expected to correct slightly from the previous -0.4% (+0.2% M/M the current consensus.

Elsewhere, option traders note a 1.5940 option expiry in the EUR cross that will help cap should any rebounds back into the 1.5900's be seen.

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