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Monday, December 11, 2006

GBP/USD: Capped at Friday's Low, UK CPI Tomorrow

Sell interest at Friday's low of 1.9515 is currently keeping a lid on cable, following its rise from early NY lows circa 1.9475. Upper obstacles include the early Europe intra-day high of 1.9568.

The latter level is an approximate 38.2% Fibo retracement point of the drop from Friday's post-Michigan Sentiment high of 1.9729 to 1.9467 (today's Asian session 11-day low). Looking ahead to tomorrow: UK November inflation data will be disclosed at 09:30GMT.

Annualized UK CPI is forecast to rise to 2.6%, from 2.4% in October. 2.0% is the BoE's target level. The size of October's US trade deficit will be revealed at 13:30GMT tomorrow, with the final FOMC statement of 2006 ensuing at 19:15GMT. US trade deficit forecast: $63.0bn.

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