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Monday, January 08, 2007

Euro Outlook (8th January 2007)

Into the new week and the Japanese holiday left the Asian session devoid of a large chunk of liquidity and momentum. As a result, EUR/USD consolidated the post-US Employment sell-off back to 1.30. Dealers still see the previous range-top turned support at 1.2980 as the next key downside trigger and lumpy stops are seen below this level that will fuel any descent should a break lower be forced.

One UK based player suggests that 1.2930 will be quickly revisited should any breach of the above support be seen. European morning trading saw spot fairly range-bound as the early rally was countered by offers into 1.3020/30. Profit-taking on both sides was noted as the host of Euro Zone and German releases offered short-term trading opportunities to many high frequency accounts.

However, bids into the 1.3000 area continued to prop the downside ahead of 1.2980. Looking ahead, Trichet is set to talk in Basle, at a BIS bi-monthly meeting, just ahead of the North American open but with the ECB set to meet this week but not hike, few sparks are likely to fly after his speech.

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