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Tuesday, January 09, 2007

Euro Outlook (9th January 2007)

Into North American trading and the Euro continues to look perilously close to dropping back and re-testing the 1.2975 area where spot bounced so sharply yesterday. Trading spent the bulk of the fist half of the day trading inside a 1.3025/50 range but after the break higher failed to instigate significant follow-through the downside has retained the attention.

Early New York actions have the 1.30 bids in their sights with a break back into the 1.2900's needing to clearly break lower before any snap towards 1.2930 will be seen. US data is light on the calendar intraday but this may not be the bad thing that it initially seems. With no event-risk there is no potential for surprises so the Dollar will not gain any unexpected support.

However, the flip side of this coin is that there is also no real risk in the pipeline that could dent the Dollar going forward. Dealers suggest that only a break of 1.3080 will take the attention off the downside in the short-term.

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