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Friday, January 05, 2007

Swiss Outlook (5th January 2007)

The EUR/CHF break below 1.61 aided the Franc into early European trading but with the Dollar underpinned the CHF outperformed on the crosses. Into North American trading and USD/CHF is currently holding close to the 1.2290 mark. This level represents the 50.0% Fibo level of the rally yesterday from 1.2241 to 1.2337 while the 38.2% & 61.8% levels are now forming the top and bottom of a short-term comfort-zone for the pair.

This could force spot to trade inside a 1.2275/2300 band ahead of the US data later today. Looking ahead, US Employment data will generate the direction for Dollar into North American trading. The 13:30 GMT report is expected to come in around 100/110K but after the ADP data earlier this week the risk is seen as skewed on the downside.

Sub-75K and USD/CHF will turn its attention back to the 1.2240 area while any better than expected release will see spot break the London 1.2300/05 offers and look to revisit the 1.2335/40 area. Following the payroll data the market will look to the Fed comments from Bernanke, Moskow & Minehan.

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