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Thursday, January 18, 2007

US TECHS: Bullish Continuation Pattern Remains Focus for S&P

With the NASDAQ 100 leading the way, Mar S&P has broken above the upper end of a bullish continuation pattern on daily charts implying new highs are likely for this move. Daily momentum studies are back on the bullish side and ADX is quite low so this market is ready to make a good directional move soon.

Trending studies on weekly charts remain bullish and do not appear to be overdone yet. Also a look at that time frame on the continuous contract shows the prior all-time high (1574) as a realistic target, which would be approximately another 9% to the upside. As mentioned, the NASDAQ 100 appears to be leading the way and the recent breakout, while losing a bit of steam, is holding above the top of the prior range at 1823. As long as trade persists above there, the market will be more inclined to achieve the measured move objective for this index at 1890 and 1460 for the Mar S&P contract.

Also it's been a running theme over the past few months but the 20-day equity put/call ratio is simply not showing the kind of optimism that would be expected after such a strong rally. This apparent disbelief in the move is probably more fuel for the upside.

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