Recent weakness in Mar S&P has slipped a bit to test key support in the 1412/16 area. Included in that zone is the 50-day moving average, which the contract has not closed below since early August. The market needs to see a bounce away from this area soon or a break lower will be the more likely scenario as momentum studies continue to slide lower.
There are clearly warning signs that the rally from the summer lows is slowing (bearish divergences, non confirmations) but it would be easier to call a significant top if the 20-day put/call ratio would show the kind of optimism associated with a six-month, 15% rally. So far there seems to be some disbelief in the move and as long as that exists the market will probably be able to weather any short-term storms.
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