Support on daily charts for Mar S&P is clearly established at 1412/16 and the market has been respecting that level. The problem is that the market has not found sufficient enough demand to spark a solid bounce from this area. Persistent pressure on a support area is often a precursor to a break of that zone and a move to lower levels.
Recent price action is also weaker than it had been during the six month rally from the July lows so it does appear that the tenor of the market is changing. In terms of sentiment the 20-day equity put/call ratio is on the low side (.59) but is not really at levels that have revealed an overly exuberant market, especially after a 15% rally, so the ingredients for a large scale pullback do not appear to be in place just yet.
Topping patterns are often more of a process so any attempt to get back toward the highs that is accompanied by a pick up in optimism will likely provide a more dynamic sell signal. For now a close below the 50-day average (1412) would be an indication that the upside is limited for the near term.
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