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Wednesday, January 10, 2007

Yen Outlook (10th January 2007)

The JPY crosses look to be under pressure today after their recent rally. EUR/JPY broke back below 155.00 overnight and pressured the downside throughout the European morning amid selling by Japanese trust banks and fund sales via GBP/JPY. EUR/JPY tested 154.70 but was unable to overcome bid interest from proprietary names and leverage funds.

The pair recovered towards 154.95/00 but met selling interest from 155.00. USD/JPY experienced very narrow ranges. The pair ticked up to 119.30 and experienced a wave of selling pressure, with Japanese trust banks and exporters noted. The pair held up amid good size bids at 119.15, leaving the pair in a very narrow range. Coupon and redemption payments out of the Eurozone are expected to influence in the near-term.

Flows are noted on Friday and Monday, which should add pressure on the EUR/JPY downside in the near-term. The cross sees next support in the low-154 area, 154.13 the low in New York Monday. USD/JPY may take some of its lead from a softer EUR/USD tone. However, talk of offers of some $4+ yards from 119.80 will stymie gains in the near-term.

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